Bihar Elections | Chirag Paswan’s visit to Bihar, pressure strategy on BJP or strategy to remove Nitish Kumar? Read the political mathematics of Bihar

The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has intensified the speculation about his party chief Chirag Paswan to contest the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar and by advocating whether the 42 -year -old Union Minister is ready to present his claim for the post of Chief Minister. On Sunday, Paswan’s brother -in -law and MP Arun Bharti created a stir by posting several posts on social media, stating that the party workers want the ministers to contest the state from the general seat, not from the reserved seat so that they can give a strong message that they are not only the leaders of the Dalit community but are now ready to lead the state.

 

Interestingly, this discussion started when Union Food Processing Industry Minister Paswan expressed his desire to return to Bihar to focus on state politics instead of staying in Delhi. Talking about the discussion, the Union Minister said, “I have said earlier that I do not see myself in national politics for a long time. Bihar and Bihari are the only reasons for coming into politics. I have always been a vision ‘Bihar first, first, first’ and I always want Bihar to be prosperous and equal to other developed states.” He said, “And after becoming an MP for the third time, I realized that this would not be possible in Delhi. I had expressed my wish in front of the party that I want to return to Bihar soon.”

Chirag Paswan has been an MP three times and is currently a Union Minister in the Modi government. He was elected from Jamui (SC) in 2014 and 2019 and MP from Hajipur (SC) in 2024. Despite being included in the Union Cabinet for the first time in 2024, Paswan has shown reluctance to stay at the center and is now keen to return to state politics. His party is emphasizing that he should contest the assembly elections and lead the state, which is an indication that he is eyeing the post of Chief Minister. It is worth noting that the NDA has already announced that the upcoming Bihar elections will be fought under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, even though their popularity is decreasing and there are reports of decline in their health. If sources are to be believed, Paswan is trying to take advantage of the current political emptiness. However, the Union Minister clearly stated that Nitish Kumar would not be replaced. He said, “There is no vacancy for the post of Chief Minister in Bihar. After the election, Nitish Kumar will become the Chief Minister.”

 

While the BJP leadership says that Paswan is free to contest from any of the seats given to the party under the seat sharing agreement, a section of the ruling party says that they are trying to take advantage of the confusion in the state unit. Union Food Processing Industry Minister Paswan in the Narendra Modi cabinet recently said that he is ready to return to Bihar politics as it has always been his inspiration to contribute to the development of the state. His party has indicated that he may contest from a general seat instead of reserved constituency, now all eyes are on Paswan’s public rally in Ara in Bhojpur district on Sunday.

Paswan’s public statements have come at a time when Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s rival believes that his time is going to end at the top of Bihar politics. It is said that the LJP (RV) leaders have the ambition to be the face to bring the major electoral forces together in the state. Although his party won five seats with 6.47% vote share in the last Lok Sabha election, it is still not as big party as Nitish Kumar’s JD (U), whose vote share was 18.52%.

A BJP leader admitted that Paswan has the ability to become a leader with acceptance beyond his party’s traditional base. A senior BJP leader from Bihar and former MP said, “He does not want to limit himself to the leader of only 4% vote. As long as the community is with them, they have to increase their base and they are playing their cards for this.” However, a section of state BJP leaders believe that the central leadership has failed to prepare faces in a politically important and unexpected state like Bihar, and has given the LJP (RV) leader a chance to take advantage of it. A senior BJP leader in Bihar said, “If the BJP leadership in the state was defined, it would not have happened. Leaders like Chirag Pawan are taking advantage of it. Chirag is playing his cards carefully.” The leader said, “His indication that he can go to the state and contest from a normal seat, shows that he wants to become the next Nitish (Kumar) in Bihar politics. He (Nitish) has ruled Bihar without a party with more than 20% vote share without a party with more than 20% vote share. He is projected from everywhere. BJP does not make a leader these days.

Another discussion in Bihar politics is whether the BJP is trying to present Chirag as an alternative to Nitish Kumar after winning the NDA elections.Keeping in mind Nitish Kumar’s deteriorating health, popularity and influence, was the BJP looking for an alternative to Nitish Kumar?

In the 2020 assembly elections, the LJP (R) got out of the NDA after not getting the desired number of seats in the seat-sharing agreement to the Chirag’s party, and contested on their own, in which more than 130 candidates fielded, all against JDU, due to which Nitish Kumar’s party’s performance was very poor and it came third with only 43 seats.

It was then alleged that the BJP was the brain behind Chirag to get out of the NDA and field candidates against JDU, so that the party could be harmed in which it was successful.The role reversed after the 2020 assembly elections and the BJP emerged as a big partner in the NDA.If the NDA wins and Nitish again becomes CM, but unable to work due to health concerns, Chirag can step into a ready and acceptable replacement.

LJP’s best performance in the 243 -member assembly was in 2005, when it won 29 seats. The BJP also believes that it will have to run carefully in important and electorally fragmented state like Bihar, balance the interests of both its colleagues. Two of the three prominent players in the state – BJP, JD (U) and RJD – ​​together form a victory formula.

Top BJP leaders said that he has no option but to keep all the existing colleagues together and move Nitish Kumar a face. A BJP leader in New Delhi said, “The reports about their health status are not good, but their face gets votes and their heritage is important. So far, it is, it is, ‘As long as it can go’. The party has no option but to go with them.”

For the BJP, Bihar is an important factor to remain as a major power in national politics. The Center for Caste Counting during the next census – it has been a major political issue of the opposition, especially in the last few elections, the Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi – was also seen as a move to strengthen the BJP’s position before the Bihar elections.