By deciding to hold by-elections on nine out of ten vacant assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh on November 20, the Election Commission has put an end to all the ongoing speculations regarding the election dates. BJP and Samajwadi Party have laid their respective chessboards. Both the parties are being cautious in the selection of candidates after handing over the reins of the elections to the veterans. SP has sounded the election bugle by making many veterans including National General Secretary Shivpal Singh Yadav the election in-charge of six seats in August itself. So far, SP has declared its candidates on these six seats only. Now out of the remaining four seats, SP can field its candidates on two more. SP can give Ghaziabad Sadar seat to Congress in alliance. According to sources, talks are also going on between SP and Congress for Khair seat of Aligarh.
Of the nine seats in Uttar Pradesh for which by-elections were announced, four seats Karhal, Katehari, Kundarki and Sisamau were won by SP in the year 2022 elections. RLD had won Meerapur seat in alliance with SP. SP has handed over the command of Katehari seat to Shivpal Singh Yadav. Faizabad MP Awadhesh Prasad and Leader of Opposition in Legislative Council Lal Bihari Yadav have been made in-charge of Milkipur seat. However, by-election has not been declared on this seat yet. Chandauli MP Virendra Singh has been made in-charge of Majhwan, former minister Chandradev Yadav has been made in-charge of Karhal, party’s national general secretary Inderjit Saroj has been made in-charge of Phulpur and MLA Rajendra Kumar has been made in-charge of Sisamau seat. SP has not yet declared its in-charges for Ghaziabad, Khair, Mirapur and Kundarki seats. SP President Akhilesh Yadav had won the Karhal seat in the 2022 assembly elections. Akhilesh Yadav has fielded his nephew Tej Pratap Yadav from Karhal. Tej Pratap Yadav, husband of Rajlakshmi Yadav, daughter of former Bihar Chief Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav, was elected MP from Mainpuri seat in the year 2014. This time, he was declared a candidate from Kannauj in the Lok Sabha elections, although at the last moment, SP President Akhilesh Yadav had contested the election.
Also read: Yogi-Akhilesh’s litmus test for nine assembly seats of Uttar Pradesh on November 13
SP’s Irfan Solanki had won from Sisamau seat of Kanpur last time. Naseem Solanki, wife of Irfan Solanki, who lost his MLA seat due to the court’s punishment, will contest the by-election from this seat. After three-time MLA Mujtaba Siddiqui became MP from Phulpur, Ambedkar Nagar, his wife Shobhavati Verma will be the SP candidate from Lalji Verma’s seat Katehari and Dr. Jyoti Bind will be the SP candidate from Majhwan seat of Mirzapur. Dr. Jyoti is the daughter of Dr. Ramesh Bind, three-time BSP MLA and BJP MP from Bhadohi. SP President Akhilesh Yadav has instructed his youth wing to mobilize on all the seats. He himself will take charge of the by-election. Akhilesh keeps distance from campaigning in by-elections.
On the other hand, the by-election is being considered as a litmus test for the BJP, which has suffered a setback due to the alliance of Samajwadi Party and Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. The party wants to settle the score of Lok Sabha elections by performing better in this election and also wants to give a big message for the assembly elections. Even before the announcement of the by-election dates, the ruling party had deployed all its ministers on the ground front. RLD’s support is further boosting BJP’s hopes. The party has now recovered to a great extent from Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA (Backward, Dalit, Minority) strategy which had surprised the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. Apart from this, it has also been successful to some extent in removing the illusion of reservation spread among the backward classes and Dalits by Congress and SP. BJP’s direct strategy in the by-elections is to save all its seats and also to make a dent in the opposition camp. Duty of 30 ministers of Yogi government has been imposed on these seats. Of these, there are 14 cabinet and 16 ministers of state.
After achieving unexpected results in the state along with BJP and SP in the Lok Sabha elections, Congress is also eyeing the assembly by-elections. Even though Congress’s share of seats in the by-elections will be less, the party is making every effort to maintain its activism before the upcoming assembly elections. Congress state president Ajay Rai has already made it clear that his party’s aim is to defeat the BJP. Due to alliance with SP, Congress is likely to get two seats in Khair and Ghaziabad. Congress had staked its claim on five seats which were part of BJP and RLD. Elections for Milkipur seat have not been announced yet. Whereas SP wants to keep Kundarki and Meerapur with itself. In such a situation, Congress will try to strengthen its organization on all the seats, so that it can get benefits in future.
If we talk about BSP, in the by-elections being held on nine assembly seats in UP, BSP will field its candidates on the lines of Ekla Chalo. Even in the last Lok Sabha elections, BSP did not form an alliance with any party. BSP, which contested the elections while staying away from NDA and India, did not get success on even a single seat. In the recently held Haryana Assembly elections, Mayawati had definitely formed an alliance with INLD, but far from winning even a single seat, the party’s votes also decreased from earlier. In such a situation, the BSP chief has decided not to form electoral alliance with any regional party of any state in future.
